Title:
15 Months Out of Recession, but Not Feeling Like It
Description: This is
a VOA Special English Economics Report.
See text below
Text:
American businesses are still slow to hire and
unemployment remains near ten percent. But an
economic research group reported in September that
the recession in the United States ended in June of
last year. It was the longest recession since the
nineteen thirties. James Stock is on the committee
that dates the rises and falls of the business cycle
for the National Bureau of Economic Research. The
Harvard University professor says this recession was
in some ways a lot like others since World War Two.
But one difference was the length -- eighteen
months. Many recessions since the nineteen forties
lasted less than a year. Another difference was the
severity. The economy shrank by more than four
percent. About eight million people lost their jobs.
Professor Stock thinks job growth is likely to
increase in the coming months based on current
levels of productivity.He says: "I think that we are
at a point right now where productivity has
increased so much that for output to continue to
grow, we will be seeing increases in hiring."Some
economic signs have improved. Manufacturing,
industrial production and consumer spending have
made small gains. But a Labor Department report
shows that new claims for unemployment insurance
rose unexpectedly. President Obama took questions at
a meeting shown on CNBC television. One questioner
wondered if today's young Americans still could hope
for a good life. That young man wanted to know if
"the American Dream" is dead for him.President Obama
answered: "Absolutely not. Look, we still have the
best universities in the world. We've got the most
dynamic private sector in the world. We've got the
most productive workers in the world. There is not a
country in the world that would not want to change
places with us." But the economy could change the
balance of power in Congress in the November
elections.Critics say the president's economic
stimulus programs have only put the country deeper
in debt. Economists disagree about the extent to
which the spending has helped. But many agree that
the president's policies avoided a worse situation.
In Washington, central bank policy makers said
inflation remains low. In fact, they said it may be
too low to support their aims for price and wage
stability. For VOA Special English I'm Alex
Villarreal.
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